Hongdu Aviation (600316): New higher education aircraft delivery volume increased significantly
Investment Summary: Incident: “Xinhua Daily Telegraph” reported that on May 9, several L15 advanced trainers blew up from Nanchang Yaohu Airport.
Cui Yanyong, deputy chief engineer of China Aviation Industry Hongdu, said that this is the third batch of advanced trainers delivered by Hongdu Berlin this year.
Main points: 1. The large-scale delivery of L15 high-education aircraft and the large-scale procurement of air and navy. We believe that the Air Force has officially purchased L15 in batches, 成都桑拿网 and the procurement has the characteristics of good continuity and scale advantages.
According to the calculation of a conventional expected delivery of 3-6 aircraft, more than 10 L15 aircraft have been delivered.
Hongdu Aviation’s L15 annual output in recent years has been around 20, and last year reached a record high of 7 deliveries a month.
We expect that after the company’s asset replacement with major shareholders is completed and the pulsating final assembly production line is further accelerated, the annual output of L15 will increase significantly.
Calculated at the current price and profit level, if the annual output of L15 exceeds 25, the profit will be realized.
The L15 is currently the most advanced trainer in the world and the only three-generation trainer to train carrier-based pilots. It can also be used as a combat readiness fighter.
In addition to the Air Force, the size of the Navy ‘s recruitment has also increased in recent years, and it is foreseeable that the Navy ‘s demand for L15 is also very strong.
2. L15 radar-type, positioning combat aircraft. At the end of last year, Hongdu disclosed the “new high education” of installing radar.
It was concluded that it was equipped with the same X-series mechanical scanning radar as the L-15B foreign trade model.
The latest fighter jet also cancelled the nose airspeed tube and added new fire control radar and avionics equipment, which further improved its performance.
The installation of the L15 radar type indicates that the future positioning of this advanced higher education aircraft will be more oriented towards combat and combat training.
The L15 radar type has a more complete fire control system, which can more realistically simulate the characteristics of high-mobility flight and advanced fire control systems of the fourth-generation fighters such as the Air Force J-10C, F-16, and even the F-20 fighters.A competent fighter pilot trainer.
In scholar training, it better connects with the previous advanced fighters, shortens the dressing training time and improves the training quality.
In terms of export, several third world countries are currently purchasing L15 as entry-level fighters, and the upgraded L15 with enhanced combat capabilities may usher in more overseas orders.
3. The launch of L-20 dedicated companion training version L15, the demand further increased to the end of 2018, the aviation industry showed that L15 is developing an exclusive companion training version of F-20.
From the pictures revealed by the Internet, the exclusive L15 accompanying the training version moves the joystick to the side, similar to the layout of the F-20 joystick.
At the same time, large-sized touch screens and avionics systems similar to the J-20 are also preliminary.
As the latest stealth fighter, the J-20 has relatively high training costs, so the exclusive companion training fighter has become the best choice for pilots to maintain daily flight hours and conduct daily and combat training.
The exclusive version of the L15 will also be launched as a pilot “incubator” for 20 pilots.
4. Profit forecast We expect the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 to be 32.
0 billion, 44.
500 million, 59.
9 trillion, net profit attributable to mother is 1.
9.3 billion, 2.
7.2 billion, 3.
580,000 yuan, a ten-year increase of 29%, 41%, 32%, EPS 西安耍耍网 is 0.
27 yuan, 0.
38 yuan, 0.
50 yuan, corresponding to PE is 65X / 46X / 35X, maintain “highly recommended” level.
5. Risks indicate that aviation equipment orders are less than expected and delivery is less than expected.